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People's Daily Online What are real challenges for China?
China should be not only confident of its strategic opportunities of development, but also fully aware of the challenges it faces. In fact, the real challenge is imminent, but will come in the next five to 10 years. The real problem is not the international and surrounding situation but internal institutional reform and social ecology. The real threat is not military conflict, but non-military problems in such areas as finance, society, network and diplomacy. In the following five to 10 years, the power contrast between China and the United States will leap from quantitative to qualitative change. It indicates the game between China and the United States at present is nothing but the prelude while the real strategic competition is about to come. It has become a strategic issue how to make adjustment of attitudes and strategies to solve the above problems and embrace the new type of Sino-US relations with China’s economic volume surpassing the United States. The next three to five years will be a critical period for major powers to get out of troubles. Presently, all these countries are doing the same thing: deepen institutional reforms internally and pursue strategic room externally, which can be found in Obama’s "New Deal" and the shift of U.S. strategies back to Asia Pacific, Europe’s institutional reforms in response to debt crisis and its active interference in the changing situations in West Asia and North Africa, as well as Russia’s pursuit of domestic economic rejuvenation, establishment of "Eurasian Union" and consolidation of its interests in Far East. Once the United States and European countries overcome the difficulties to complete a new round of institutional reform, in addition to influences of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution, they will become a major shock in China’s period of strategic opportunities. In the next three to five years, the shift of U.S. strategies back to Asia Pacific attaches importance to realization of US-dominated rebalance in Asia Pacific, rather than comprehensive confrontation with China, and to a new round of Asia-Pacific strategic layout by means of sovereign disputes between China and relevant nations, instead of US involvement in military conflict with China. In this stage, the United States will make greater use of non-military means to delay or interfere with China's rise and reap strategic benefits in attempt to achieve the revival of national strength and consolidate its hegemonic position. Thus, China should change the traditional way of thinking and strategic opinions to turn the focus of national defense from solution of partial external military conflict risks to rebuilding of the comprehensive internal institutional mechanism. It determines whether China will successfully cope with current strategic challenges once again.
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