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http://www.al-monitor.com Syria sends diplomats to Geneva and fighters to Yabrud As the delegations of the Syrian regime and the opposition prepare to return to Geneva on Feb. 10 to negotiate a settlement to the conflict in Syria, the fighters of both sides are preparing for a new military confrontation north of Damascus, specifically in and around the city of Yabrud, the capital of the Qalamoun region. Information from both Lebanese and Syrian sources indicates clear field preparations in the Yabrud area. Both official and nonofficial Lebanese parties are concerned with the impending battle because of its proximity to the eastern Lebanese border with Syria and believe it is possible that clashes will break out with the start of the second negotiating round of Geneva II, as part of the game of messages between the internal and regional parties to the conflict. Yabrud is the most prominent stronghold of opposition gunmen in Qalamoun. Since June 5, when Qusair, a town in the Homs countryside, fell into the hands of regime forces and Hezbollah guerrillas, Yabrud has become a refuge for opposition gunmen who fled from the north. Yabrud then became a haven for gunmen fleeing the battles of east and west Ghouta last summer. According to military experts, Yabrud represents to the area stretching from Damascus to the border with Lebanon the same thing Qusair, before it fell, meant to the region of Homs and its countryside. Yabrud is in the center of Qalamoun, at the midpoint of the highway between Damascus and Homs. Close to the Lebanese border, it overlooks roads leading to the two Ghouta regions, and from there toward Badiya al-Sham. So Yabrud has become a key area in the military battle around Damascus in addition to its symbolic significance to both sides of the war. Experts point out that the area of Yabrud is no more 15 square kilometers (5.8 square miles), but its regional extension and the proliferation of gunmen in its vicinity give the city an increasing importance. The battle of Yabrud has come to mean a wide line beginning in the town of Girod, about 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) southeast of Yabrud, and ending at the Lebanese border, about 22 kilometers (13.7 miles) to the west. This is a highly sensitive border area because it is adjacent to the Sunni-majority Arsal area in Lebanon. Arsal is mostly supportive of Syrian opposition fighters and gives them safe haven, prompting accusations to be traded between Arsal and the Lebanese Shiite areas around it. Those accusations have resulted in clashes and other frequent security problems. Syrian and Lebanese sources gave Al-Monitor similar information that suggests that operations by regime forces will soon start in the areas adjacent to east Yabrud, as the city has been under siege from the north after the regime gained control of Nabak and Deir Attiya. Yabrud is also under siege from the south and the southeast from the Damascus side. Therefore, these sources suggest, the first steps to complete the blockade or even enter the town will come from the east, specifically from an area called Mazareh Rima, and from another nearby area known as Tallat al-Kuwaiti (so named because a Kuwaiti prince bought large tracts of land and started building a large palace on one of its hills). Experts stress that the battle in these two sites will be a key indicator of the direction that the battle of Yabrud will take. If those two sites fall quickly, the battle for Yabrud will be lighter, but will put another burden on the corresponding area, specifically on Lebanon, by pushing gunmen west toward Arsal. However, the same sources revealed to Al-Monitor that all eyes are on Daraa, which is south of Damascus and adjacent to the Jordanian and Syrian border. It was in Daraa that the Syrian revolution started, with the demonstrations of mid-March 2011. The Syrian authorities fear that gunmen may retaliate for an advance on Yabrud by starting an open confrontation in the south, according to the same sources. To relieve the pressure on Yabrud, some even expect that all southern fronts will ignite, from Daraa to Suwaida in the east and to Quneitra in the west, near the occupied Syrian Golan. The same sources relayed information from Damascus authorities that large arms and ammunition supplies have reached the gunmen in south Daraa recently, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is involved in supporting the gunmen via Jordanian territory. Wherever the truth lies, it is clear that at the beginning of this week, attention will be drawn toward two sides: Geneva and the second round of the Geneva II conference, and Yabrud, where the war will enter its third year in March. According to the logic of war, this duality is normal. Hasn’t it been said that “diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means?”
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