The concept of crisis prevention
Crisis prevention is aimed at preventing violence
Crisis prevention is not new
Crisis prevention is changing
Crisis prevention begins at home
Crisis prevention must be long term and structured
Crisis prevention must be cooperative and coherent
Crisis prevention and crisis management belong together
Crisis prevention is mainly but not exclusively a civilian challenge
Crisis prevention pays
Crisis prevention is too important to leave it to governments alone

Crisis prevention instruments
National
International

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I. The concept of crisis prevention

1. Crisis prevention is aimed at preventing violence
Crisis prevention and conflict prevention, which are often wrongly used as synonyms, do not mean freedom from conflict. The very fact that people have different preferences and skills and that resources are, as a rule, limited means that conflicts as such are unavoidable. Nor are conflicts necessarily destructive. On the contrary, they can be productive and advance dynamic change. Rather it is important that within and among states conflicts are free of violence.

2. Crisis prevention is not new
Banishing violence from international relations, or at least containing it, was the reason for founding the United Nations. It is the essence of the UN Charter and has remained one of its key tasks (the UN Secretary-General called for a worldwide "culture of prevention" in his speech to the 54th UN General Assembly). Non-violence was also one of the top priorities of German foreign policy during the Cold War. The reason was and still is obvious: where there is violence people suffer, and although war was certainly never the father of all things it has increasingly become the destroyer of all things. Violence must only be the absolute last resort.

3. Crisis prevention is changing
What is new at the beginning of the 21st century?

* The upheaval of 1989/90 brought to an end the risk of a Third World War. This released resources which had previously been tied up in the management of the Cold War: not only material resources but also the time and attention which politicians, the public and the media can devote to a problem.
* Although there is no longer a danger of a world war breaking out, the world has not become more peaceful: in 1999 there were 34 violent conflicts.
* The majority of these conflicts were internal. As the UN Charter is based on the assumption that conflicts are international, interference into internal conflicts could clash with the Charter principle of state sovereignty. Most violent conflicts were in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, but bloody conflicts could not be prevented closer to home (the Balkans) either during the last few years. The maxim is still: the closer a country is to a conflict, the more it will feel its impact, not least as a refuge for victims. It is no secret that this factor has influenced Germany's policy on the wars in the former Yugoslavia. However, there is another factor of equal importance: if we champion human rights and regard the dignity of the individual as sacrosanct then we cannot ignore grave and systematic human rights violations.
* As a result of globalization the world is moving closer together: in a positive sense through an expanding world economy with new and powerful trading and investment partners, in a negative sense through the proliferation of armaments, including weapons of mass destruction, as well as throuh crisises affecting the environment or natural resources across the borders. What is more, due to what could be called the CNN factor, we have all become witnesses to everything that happens.
* Role and importance of non-state players: NGOs in particular have never been as numerous and influential as they are today.


To sum up, preventing violence is a new task in a twofold sense: basic conditions have changed and it has therefore become more urgent.

4. Crisis prevention begins at home
This applies to both sides: for politically stable and prosperous states and regions on the one hand and crisis-ridden states and regions on the other:

* Excessive, non-sustainable consumption of resources can trigger off or aggravate crises - locally and regionally, as well as globally (climate change). The rich industrial countries which consume almost 60 % of the world's energy despite having only one fifth of its population, must therefore adopt ways of production and life which do more to save resources, thus helping to prevent crises.
* Peace can and should be encouraged and facilitated from the outside, but it cannot be imposed upon the parties to the conflict. Ultimately they must want it. The parties to the conflict therefore carry primary responsibility for preventing violence themselves.


5. Crisis prevention must be long term and structured
The more successful we are in eliminating the structural causes of violence, the more effective crisis prevention will be: poverty and economic stagnation or even regression, gross inequalities, political oppression and systematic discrimination of minorities, the arbitrary use of power and anarchy, intolerance and ignorance, the lack of structures based on the rule of law, free media and a strong civil society. Structural crisis prevention as a means of helping people to help themselves requires much patience. Its success depends first and foremost on the broader political framework: for example, the planned EU enlargement and the already completed enlargement of the Council of Europe are undoubtedly effective crisis prevention strategies in themselves; the same applies to orienting development, trade (WTO) international financial and environmental policies to crisis prevention. The opening up of NATO is also conducive to preventing violence (e.g. due to member states' inability to attack each other).

6. Crisis prevention must be cooperative and coherent


* Cooperation
As peace, i.e. long-term structured absence of from violence, cannot be enforced from the outside, crisis prevention depends upon the parties to a conflict not refusing to cooperate. However, a policy oriented towards crisis prevention must for its part be cooperative. And it will be all the more cooperative the more coherent it is.
* Coherence
Competing interests and obligations can stand in the way of a coherent overall crisis prevention strategy. Ensuring coherence must remain our guiding principle.


7. Crisis prevention and crisis management belong together
Crisis prevention alone is not enough. If violence is imminent or has already broken out, crisis management and a rapid and appropriate reaction by the international community are necessary. For urgent violence prevention of this kind there are the traditional instruments of diplomacy ranging from verbal statements and offers of mediation to sanctions. Instruments which, for example in Bosnia or in Kosovo, are intended to help ensure that a violent conflict already settled does not break out again, are of increasing importance ("post-conflict conflict prevention" - cf. Part II "Instruments").

8. Crisis prevention is mainly but not exclusively a civilian challenge
The military can contain violence or end it by force but it cannot eliminate the causes. Crisis prevention is therefore mainly a civilian challenge. However, military capabilities may be necessary as instruments of crisis prevention and crisis management to end violence or to prevent its (renewed) outbreak as they represent a credible threat that counter-violence may be used. That was the case during the Cold War and it can, as was shown for example in Bosnia and Kosovo, still be so today.

9. Crisis prevention pays
Crisis prevention, it is commonly believed, becomes more difficult the more successful it could be: crises which do not break out are not seen, and what is not shown on CNN receives no attention at all or not in time: It is easier to collect money for a coffin than for medicine (Chinese proverb). On the other hand, the daily images of war and hardship show us how worthwhile crisis prevention is. It makes more sense and is cheaper to prevent conflicts than to wait for the outbreak of violence, expulsions and destruction and then end violence with violence and rebuild what has been destroyed.

10. Crisis prevention is too important to leave it to governments alone
Economic and technological (Internet) globalization have further increased the influence of non-state players (companies, NGOs). However, states remain the main players in international politics. Effective prevention of violence cannot succeed without governments, cooperation among them and with non-state players.

II. Crisis prevention instruments

In order to understand the following overview it is important to remember that, on the one hand, crisis prevention is a long-term and structured approach while, on the other, it must take effect quickly where necessary (cf. I.5 and I.7). Against the background of the violent conflicts of the nineties, the German Government has made considerable efforts, as envisaged in the coalition agreement concluded by the SPD and the Alliance 90/The Greens, to develop new or improved civilian crisis prevention instruments and also championed them within a multilateral framework.

1. National

* The German Government recently elaborated political guidelines for a crisis prevention strategy towards which it will orient its foreign policy. The Overall Concept on Crisis Prevention is based on an integrative approach in which all fields of policy are coordinated with each other, cooperation between government and civil society is possible and the integration of national measures into peace efforts at European and international level as well as in the partner regions is ensured. The starting point for measures of crisis prevention, conflict settlement and post-conflict peace-building is an extended definition of security which includes political, economic, ecological and social stability. This must be founded on respect for human rights, social justice, democracy and the rule of law, the preservation of natural resources, development opportunities in all regions of the world and the use of mechanisms of peaceful conflict settlement.
* Training of civilian personnel for international peace missions and other missions (UN, OSCE, etc.)
Federal Foreign Minister Fischer initiated a scheme to train civilian experts for peace missions under which a pool of qualified personnel is set up who can be deployed at short notice in various missions (democratization aid, police monitoring, election observers, human rights field operations or similar tasks). What is more, the Civilian Personnel database, which currently has about 650 persons listed, will be systematically further developed. Since the beginning in July 1999, 23 training courses with roughly 400 participants have been held (including five special courses on Kosovo and one each on East Timor and the Caucasus). In 2001 eight courses for a total of approximately 200 participants will be offered. Those who complete these courses are included in the personnel pool which in future is to be kept at a strength of about 500-600 persons. An increasing number of courses is also open to foreign participants. So far, three international courses were held for more than 40 foreign participants. In future, all courses will be open to foreign participants.
* Increase in funds for international crisis prevention measures in the 2000 Federal Foreign Office budget
The Bundestag, initially only for fiscal year 2000, voted in favour of a significant increase of DM 20m to DM 28.6m for peacekeeping measures. As well as increasing funds, the permissible uses were extended to include crisis prevention and conflict settlement. Taken together they make it possible for us to push ahead with the implementation of the political mandate contained in the coalition agreement, i.e. to take "initiatives to improve the competence and funding of the United Nations" and to establish "infrastructure for crisis prevention and civilian conflict management" involving NGOs. Furthermore, a total of DM 1.2 billion has been earmarked for the next few years for the implementation of the Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe. These funds are also intended for a long-term crisis prevention strategy in keeping with the aims of the Pact.
* Development policy (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development)
Gearing projects and programmes towards eliminating the structural causes of conflicts, supporting the development of democratic structures (advice on legal and constitutional matters) and the civil society, as well as the demobilization of armed forces; building up a Civil Peace Service as a joint task for state and non-state agencies to promote non-violent conflict settlement (budget 2000: DM 17.5m). The Civil Peace Service is part of our bilateral development policy while the Federal Foreign Office trains people for international peace missions (e.g. UN, OSCE).
* Democratization and equipment aid
These projects, which are financed from the Federal Foreign Office's budget (a total of DM 3.12m in the fiscal year 2000), also mainly involve measures aimed at civilian conflict prevention and management (humanitarian mine clearance, election observation, election aid). Equipment aid for armed forces in developing countries, newly devised as of 2001, is intended to strengthen their peacekeeping capacities.


2. International

United Nations
On the basis of Chapter VI of the UN Charter, the United Nations, supported by its member states, developed and put into practice instruments for peaceful conflict settlement. In the Agenda for Peace (1992), the traditional instruments of peacekeeping in accordance with Chapter VI were extended, in particular through the preventive deployment of peacekeeping troops, the creation of UN stand-by forces and the strengthening of the role of regional organizations in this field. Furthermore, the role of preventive diplomacy was emphasized within the framework of crisis prevention.

Germany is involved in the UN stand-by arrangements and has provided UN missions with civilian personnel (e.g. secondment of police officers to Bosnia and Kosovo, as well as experts to East Timor) and military capacities. The Federal Republic of Germany has pledged civilian contributions to the United Nations Stand.By Arrangements in three spheres: medical components; mine clearance: stress intervention teams (to help members of missions who are suffering stress). The Federal Ministry of Defence has offered the UN Secretary-General transport and medical services, engineering, telecommunications and navy elements, as well as military observers.

Something else which has proved its worth is the system of the Secretary-General's Special Representatives for a particular conflict. Their task is to monitor (both military and civilian) and to advise the UN and the parties to the conflict, as well as to form Groups of Friends of the Secretary-General from the member states. Here, too, we are supporting the UN. For example, we are a member of the Friends of the Secretary-General on Georgia and the German diplomat Dieter Boden is the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative and Head of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG).

OSCE
The OSCE has various instruments at its disposal for civilian crisis prevention and conflict settlement tasks, ranging from the secondment of fact-finding missions, the appointment of Personal Representatives of the Chairman-in-Office to the establishment of long-term missions. In addition, protection of human rights, minorities and freedom of the media are also promoted by OSCE institutions created for this purpose. The instrument of flexible OSCE missions adopted by the 1992 Helsinki summit has proved to be particularly valuable in long-term crisis prevention. The work of the OSCE missions is a completely new instrument of international support, monitoring and advisory work based on the consensus of all OSCE participating states.

In June 2000 the OSCE also adopted a special REACT programme (Rapid Expert Assistance and Cooperation Teams), implemented since April 2001, for the mobilization of civilian crisis reaction forces at short notice for new OSCE missions. The training which has been organized by the Federal Foreign Office since July 1999 backs up and complements these OSCE efforts. Our personnel in the OSCE has been increased accordingly (currently there are more than 120 Germans in OSCE missions, including police officers). German expenditure on seconding personnel to the OSCE in 2001 amounts to just under DM 10m.

European Union
Since the Cologne European Council in June 1999 the EU has been working to strengthen the Common European Security and Defence Policy. Parallel to the military sphere, capacities and structures for civilian crisis management are being created. The central objective is to strengthen the Union's ability to prevent violent conflicts and to contribute to international crisis management. To these ends, it has adopted several headline goals to be achieved by 2003. In the military field, EU member states want to be able to deploy within 60 days and sustain for at least one year military forces of up to 50,000-60,000 persons for peace support missions. In the civilian field, members states have set themselves concrete targets with a view on EU contributions to international missions: police (up to 5,000 police officers), rule of law (up to 200 officials), civilian administration (establishment of a pool of experts) and civil protection (intervention teams of up to 2,000). The capabilities could be used for both EU contributions to operations led by international organisations such as the UN or the OSCE or for EU-led operations. A Committee for Civilian Aspects of Crisis Management was established to manage the development and implementation of headline goals.
In June 2001, the Göteborg European Council endorsed an EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts (available on EU homepage at "official documents/European Council Conclusions/Gothenburg European Council: Presidency Conclusions/ Annex III Documents submitted to the Göteborg European Council"). Its aim is to make full use of the broad array of instruments available to the Union for long-term (structural) prevention addressing the root-causes of violence as well as for short-term (acute) prevention through crisis management.

Council of Europe
Thanks to our help, the Council of Europe's monitoring and protection mechanisms for fundamental freedoms and basic rights have been considerably strengthened during the last few years (since 1 November 1998: new permanent European Court of Human Rights, Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities of 1995, the Office of the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights established in 1999, monitoring of specific countries by the Parliamentary Assembly, monitoring of specific issues by the Committee of Ministers, periodic reports and recommendations of the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance - ECRI - established in 1993). As a result of the strengthening of its operative capacities (among others, field missions in Kosovo, participation of experts from the Council of Europe in the office of the Russian human rights commissioner for Chechnya, Kalamanov) and the extension of its activities in the field of promoting and stabilizing democracy (ADACS programme), the Council of Europe has by now developped a considerable capacity in crisis prevention and rehabilitation.

G 8
Conflict prevention as an independent issue has been included in the G 8 agenda at Germany's suggestion (special Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in Berlin in December 1999). At the Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Miyazaki in July 2000 concrete initiatives have been agreed upon (fight against uncontrolled and illegal transfer of small arms and against the illegal diamond trade being used to finance wars; crisis-preventive orientation of development policy; ending of the use of child soldiers and the alleviation of the impact of armed conflicts on children; as well as the provision of civilian police officers for international operations). New initiatives are to be considered at the forthcoming meeting of G8 Foreign Ministers in Rome 18./19. july 2001..

NATO
Through its presence in Bosnia and Kosovo, NATO, with German participation, is making an indispensable contribution (SFOR 2,300, KFOR 5,400 Federal Armed Forces soldiers) towards preventing fresh violence (post-conflict conflict prevention). The Partnership for Peace programme (PfP) and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPR) with its 46 member states foster security cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic area with their consultation fora and a host of activities, thus also serving the purpose of crisis prevention. In addition to this, the maintenance of a credible deterrence potential remains an important element of peacekeeping.

Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe
The Stability Pact was designed in 1999, complementary to the NATO operation in the Kosovo conflict and on Germany's initiative, as an instrument of preventive diplomacy and considerably advanced within the EU framework. Within a few months, agreement was reached on the Pact which is supported not only by the EU but also by the countries in the region, the major international organizations and financial institutions, the G 8, as well as NATO. The countries of South-Eastern Europe are involved through the concept of co-ownership within the context of a comprehensive approach for the region. The Stability Pact was adopted in Cologne on 10 June 1999 by the foreign ministers and representatives of the organizations involved and made public in Sarajevo at the end of July 1999 by a summit of heads of state and government.

Substantial new funds are being allocated to help the region. Germany alone will make available a total of DM 1.2 billion over the next few years. This will benefit all areas of the Stability Pact - democratization, the economy and security. In all, a large number of projects have been initiated in the region by donor countries. At a financing conference in March 2000, a quick start package of approximately 1.5 billion euros was adopted; a further package of EIB infrastructure measures totalling 2.7 billion euros underscores how serious the international community is about its pledges. Meanwhile over 80 % of the Stability Pact's quick start projects have been launched. In the light of this success a 2nd Regional Conference is planned for 25-26 October 2001 in Bucharest.

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